Six more weeks of winter

(Feb. 2, 2012) At 7:25 this morning, amid mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s, Groundhog Phil saw his shadow in the little town of Punxsutawney, Pa.

Punxsutawny Phil’s “brother” may be dead and stuffed, but he didn’t let that stop him from making a prediction.

According to folklore, Phil’s sighting of his own shadow means there will be six more weeks of winter. Had Phil not seen his shadow, it would have meant there will be an early spring.

If Phil’s forecast is right, it signals a dramatic reversal from the mild weather pattern affecting much of the country. Many parts of central and eastern United States have seen temperatures 20 to 30 degrees above normal in recent days. Yesterday just 19 percent of the lower 48 states had snow cover compared to 52 percent at this time last year.

Historic odds heavily favor a forecast for winter to last deep into March. Since the groundhog’s first prediction in 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 99 times and failed to spot it just 16 times. There are nine missing years in the record, but Phil has issued a forecast without exception.

But just how accurate is the prognosticator of prognosticators? It depends on the source. The official website of Punxsutawney Phil, perhaps not impartial, claims the groundhog has issued a correct forecast 100 percent of the time. AccuWeather’s grade for the groundhog’s accuracy is slightly lower, but still quite respectable.

Washington, D.C.’s winter prognosticator, Potomac Phil agreed with his fellow groundhog in a ceremony in Dupont Circle about an hour after Phil’s prediction: Six more weeks of winter.

There are lots more interesting traditions and facts to read about in Recorder Community Newspapers and their online blogs. Interested individuals and local community organization representatives are invited to join the growing group of Recorder bloggers. Just give me a call at (908) 832-7420 or e-mail panderson@recordernewspapers.com and I will explain the free process.